An IMF Course on High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

Economic growth, as measured by changes in real GDP, is a critical indicator of an economy’s health. In most countries, these estimates are only available annually or quarterly, and with significant lags. Economic monitoring and policy decision making, however, are carried out more frequently and based on the most recent periods. Most countries address this discrepancy in data availability by producing high-frequency indicators of economic activity that may be available quarterly, monthly, or even weekly.  

These high-frequency indicators complement annual and quarterly GDP estimates, bringing together a range of data to give policymakers general and timely measures to track national trends in the short run. Their development or improvement is an important objective of statistical agencies across JVI member countries.

The IMF Statistics Department delivered a course on high-frequency indicators of economic activity at the JVI during August 19-30, 2024. This course highlighted the need to compile indicators that follow international best practices and allow for comparisons through time and among economies. The course focused on the practical implementation of the issues. It covered the use of traditional and non-traditional data sources, the compilation of accurate volume measures, the use of statistical techniques such as seasonal adjustment and benchmarking, the development of early estimates, and the importance of an adequate dissemination policy.

The course was completed by 29 participants from 14 countries, who contributed actively to the discussions, sharing their national experience. The diversity of statistical capacity, regions, and agencies represented (national statistical institutes, central banks, and ministries) allowed for a lively and interesting discussion, creating significant learning gains based on the practical components of the course. Participants were motivated to apply and share the knowledge gained with their colleagues on their return to work and to maintain the network of compilers that was built during the course, contributing to the improvement of real sector statistics in the JVI member countries.

Margarida Martins, Senior Economist, IMF